Adam Daniel Mezei's posterous

 

(Bam Bam waving good-bye?)

The North Korean English-language blogosphere reported last week on the recent “significant breakthroughs” in US-North Korea relations. Brisk mentions were made of how these recent developments might be the final shove that topples North Korea from its illogical isolationist perch.

Articles and blogs were quick to bolster their strongly-worded arguments and sentiments with proof of recent events taking place along the peninsula over the past several months, events these bloggers and pundits claim prove conclusively that the time is ripe for a vigorous push by the US and South Korea to bring North Korea to heel and lure it once and for all into the international fold.

With Bam Bam’s condition weakening by the day and his restive population subsisting on a spartan diet of poor-quality foodstuffs — northern refugees to the South claim that starvation rations persist in certain parts of DPRK — North Korea, yet again, is decimating itself from within.

Basically, say these bloggers, journalists, and pundits, this may spell the end of North Korea as we know it…

 

What Are Those “Recent North Korean Developments” — A Review:

Plenty of stuff’s been happening since May 2009, to wit…

 

• The nuclear tests of May of that year: This was the event which kickstarted North Korea’s year-long-plus downward spiral into the mire. Last time Bam Bam issued the order to detonate something was way back in October 2006, and, of course, he apologized profusely for having done so, claiming that he’d be perfectly willing to make a few compromises, if only the US would make some key compromises first. Same old story. Same old outcome.
• November 2009′s release of the captive US journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee: the  pair were released from North Korean captivity on August 4, 2009 following Former President Clinton’s whirlwind 2-day emergency intervention tour to Pyongyang. This too represented something of an opening. A willingness – in North Korean newspeak and gesturespeak — on the part of Pyongyang to deal with the West. It basically amounted to nothing. Two additional American missionaries still remain in North Korean custody, incidentally. They don’t have nearly the clout or influence of Ling and Lee.
• November 2009′s dramatic currency devaluation: Whole fortunes were wiped out in November 2009 at the stroke of a pen as the NK won was redenominated by a factor of 100. This was allegedly enacted in order to curtail the spate of private marketeering and other entrepreneurial activity that had sprouted up in recent years across DPRK, reluctantly tolerated by the regime. Kim and his hapless cronies (one of whom — Pak Nam-gi was subsequently put to death in March 2010 for the economic chaos which ensued) were basically looking to stick it to the rising NK moneyed class just to remind them who’s really in charge. The re-evaluation slammed North Korea’s already ailing destitute classes hardest.
• March 2010′s sinking of the corvette Cheonan: Then there was the sinking of the South Korean navy ship Cheonan, the blame for which a UN-sponsored commission of inquiry — with US, Australian, and Swedish participation — initially laid squarely on Pyongyang’s shoulders, only to later backpedal during the Security Council’s issuing of its toothless “presidential statement.” It merely alluded to North Korea’s involvement, using the diplomatically-chosen words that it “Takes Note of Neighbour’s Response Denying Responsibility for Sinking” — the “Neighbour” of course being DPRK. This has had repercussions all around the region as first China was obviously unwilling to point the finger at its erstwhile ally, and then Russia — conducting its own independent inquiry — also joined the chorus of doubters as to who was responsible for the action. In the latter case, economics seems to be the clear motivating factor.
• Kim Jong-il’s “Secret” May 2010 trip to China: We’re left wondering what this meeting entai led? What did Kim talk about with Chinese President Hu Jintao? Did Kim travel to Beijing to receive instructions from the Chinese on how best to deal with the US in the wake of the Cheonan‘s sinking? Was he called out onto the mat to explain his country’s apparent belligerence? Was he given strict succession instructions from the Chinese? Did Hu promise to look after the heir apparent Kim Jong-un once Bam Bam was good and gone, to ensure that the Americans wouldn’t have their way with him? Here, here, and here are several possible scenarios…
• World Cup 2010: Following an impressive 2-1 stonewalling the mighty Brazilians (in which NK lost honorably), the country’s squad went on to get annihilated in its second game — 7-0 — against the Portuguese and then lost convincingly — 3-0 — against the Ivoreans to bow out of the tournament’s Round of 32. Were North Korea to have done well at the tournament, it might have generated a whole mass of goodwill. But it wasn’t to be.
• June 2010′s willingness to talk…again: North Korea announced its willingness last month to join a UN-sponsored forum to “discuss” its chronic domestic health problems, all under US auspices. Why this was significant was because the US refused to place NK on the list of terrorist-sponsoring states a second time following the country’s October 11, 2008 removal from that same list. The White House is very reluctant to add NK back for two primary reasons: a) blame for the Cheonan‘s sinking is not conclusive, ergo, it isn’t NK’s direct fault for certain, and b) China is totally against an escalation of hostilities on the peninsula whatsoever, and the Obama Administration isn’t going down that rabbit hole, for now.
• Calls to boot NK out of the United Nations: Certain pundits, namely journalist-in-residence Claudia Rosett of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recently listed the litany of ways in which Kim Jong-il’s regime has violated the various sacred tenets of the UN Charter, He, therefore, she claims, has abrogated North Korea’s sovereign right to remain a member of the weak-kneed international body as a result. Rosett’s opinion perhaps remains a minority one for now, but as this rumor picks up velocity in the echo chamber, look to have more pundits and journalists calling for Kim’s head on a silver platter. It’s a well-written piece with a cogent argument and I fully recommend the read.
• Possible Ressurrection of the North-South Sunshine Policy? Ever since South Korea forbade its citizens from visiting North Korea’s Kumgang resort following July 11, 2009′s shooting of a 53 year-old female ROK tourist in so-called “no-man’s land,” the Sunshine Policy of the early naughts has been — for all intents and purposes — moribund. However, a recent Christian Science Monitor article (nice going Douglas Kirk!) suggests movements are underway in South Korea to involve the Chinese in a revitalized “sunshine-esque policy” that may coax NK back to the bargaining table. We’ll see…
• Will Kim Jong-un nominally take over in September 2010? The Korean Workers Party (KWP) Congress set for this September promises to be “historical.” It’s expected that Bam Bam will take the opportunity here to formally announce to the rest of the nation and the world that his son is to become the country’s next hereditary leader. Jong-un will likely be awarded with increased security responsibilities and a rash of public face time, yet even the experts are unsure what may become of him. If the military doesn’t stand behind him — as evidenced by the Cheonan‘s mysterious sinking — there may be more than just a palace coup come September.

So what now?

Following November 2009′s currency devaluation, North Koreans are once again starving.Food — and money to buy it — is scarce again, and the regime is getting ultra nervous.

Around two million (!!!) people died — according to certain statistics — during the mid-1990′s famine following the end of Soviet-sponsorship on the Kim Farm. North Koreans aren’t going to tolerate yet another famine now that its society is increasingly savvy to what’s happening outside of the DPRK’s borders, especially along the border regions with China and the Russian Federation, thanks to mobile phones and traffic around the Tumen and Yalu crossings.

Bam Bam’s bombastic sloganeering and the regime’s overall attempts to mollify the populace aren’t going to work a second time.

 

(NK propaganda about the Cheonan?)

This likely explains why Bam Bam has escalated his son’s succession to the super fast track.

This also likely explains the recent spate of postering in Pyongyang (as shown above) depicting a possible retaliation against a “Cheonan“-like ship (“If she comes, we will attack it!” it says) in order supply more distracting belligerent fodder for a population finding itself at wit’s end.

There are even some North Koreans who crave a second round of warfare, just to put a decisive end, once and for all, to their miserable living conditions vis-a-vis the South.

If something suddenly happens, you’ll be the first to know here.

North Koreans plan, Bam Bam laughs.